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A simple yardstick with which to compare levels of food security between net grain importing countries

During recent missions to 4 Central Asian Republics, AA International staff had cause to remark on the relative levels of food security within the cluster of countries visited. The device chosen was to combine per capita GDP (or GNI) and wheat import requirement to construct a wheat vulnerability index- cVI. The cVIs, when juxtaposed with the volumes of wheat held as strategic stocks in each country, provide a simple yardstick to rank countries according to their vulnerability to price hikes. A worked example using mission data is given below. The approach may have application elsewhere.

The wheat Vulnerability Index, cVI

1. Each of the Central Asian Republics visited by AA International Ltd (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) is following a path to liberalisation of the command economy through privatisation of industry, commerce and land.
2. Each has passed through a similar series of steps exhibiting, according to assets and political will, varying degrees of civil unrest, dismantling of interstate dependencies, failure of industrial and macro-agricultural units and an exodus of skilled personnel, all events resulting in dramatic declines in economic status and social status, which bottomed-out and have been followed by economic growth over the past 8 years, albeit slow and from a very low level in most cases.
3. Population estimates and current per capita GDPs for each republic are shown below in Table 1. They clearly demonstrate that in the post-Soviet hierarchy Kazakhstan sits head and shoulders above the other countries in the sub-region.  However, global events are now (mid 2008) challenging the economic conditions even in Kazakhstan, let alone in the fragile conditions in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan which may only respond to, rather than influence the extent of such events in the region (1).

Table 1(2)Population (millions) and GDPs per capita 2007

Country	Kazakhstan	Kyrgyzstan	Uzbekistan	Tajikistan
Popn	15.2 million	5.3 million	28.2 million	7.5 million
GDP	3949 US$	750 US $	670 US $	490 US $
GNI	-	(952)	(720)	(600)

(-) Estimated GNI with remittances from away workers added.

4. In addition to having GDPs in the World Bank “poorest nations” category, the three republics, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are also importers of their main staple, wheat. The quantity of wheat required annually offers an indication of level of dependency on the dominant states in the region (e.g. Russia and Kazakhstan) in strict deficit of wheat terms. In an attempt to look at what may be termed wheat vulnerability in food security terms, an index, cVI has been derived by combining annual wheat deficit and GDP of each republic:

cVI= Wheat Import Requirement in tonnes/ (Population number in millions(3) x GDP per head per annum in US $)

5. The index resulting from the calculation enables comparisons of apparent vulnerability to wheat price hikes to be made; the higher the score, the greater the vulnerability of the country concerned. Table 2 presents the Wheat Vulnerability Indices and shows that Kazakhstan as a wheat exporter has a cVI of zero; although Uzbekistan is the greatest wheat importer, the country most vulnerable is Tajikistan, with a cVI three times greater than Uzbekistan. Even when remittances from workers abroad are added to the GDPs (GNI), Tajikistan remains the most vulnerable state and both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan exhibit much higher levels of wheat vulnerability than Uzbekistan (4).

Table 2 (2) Wheat Vulnerability Indices, cVI. 2008/9

	Kazakhstan	Uzbekistan	Kyrgyzstan	Tajikistan
	Exporting <10 million t	Import 1,226,000 t	Import 575,000 t	Import 752,000 t
cVI	0	65	145	204
cVI2	(GNI)	60	134	167

cVI2 based on GDP + remittances

6. Such levels of vulnerability may be alleviated by the storage and timely release of strategic stocks of grain. All four Central Asian Republics noted above have established authorities with mandates to create and manage strategic stocks known generally as state reserves. Whereas the existence of such stocks is confirmed, details of their scale, scope and condition are less easily determined. Estimates of wheat stocks garnered during a recent WFP Mission (5) are presented in Table 3.

Table 3 Wheat Stocks

Country	National Stocks	State Reserve Location	Other Stocks Location
Kazakhstan	1 million t	0.5 million t (FCC) (6)	0.5 million t elevators
Uzbekistan	700,000 t	700,000 t UDM elevators (7)	Unknown private
Kyrgyzstan	132,000 t (target)	132,000 t – In private mills	Unknown private
Tajikistan	uncertain	10,000t* for release by Min Social Affairs	Unknown private

* Only 3 days supply; no real buffer against change

7. Combining the contents of Tables 2 and 3 places Tajikistan at an even greater level of apparent risk than Kyrgyzstan and both populations obviously exist at a far greater level of food insecurity than Uzbekistan.

1 Kazakhstan influenced events by closing grain export market to grain deficient neighbours in April 2008 2 Source: Robinson WI (2008) Regional Market Survey. WFP, Regional Office, Cairo. 3 Mission construct; population millions in integers i.e. 1 million=1 4 Also compare Georgia =81; Azerbaijan=38; Armenia=36; 5 Robinson WI (2008) ibid. 6 Managed by Food Contract Corporation on behalf of Government. 7 Managed by Min Econ Dev under oversight of Cabinet.

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